(Reuters) U.S. President
Donald Trump's warm words for Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping as a "good
man" will reassure Beijing that he finally understands the importance of
good ties, but risks leaving America's regional allies puzzling over
where they fit into the new order.
The
budding "bromance" between the two leaders appeared highly unlikely
when Trump was lambasting China on the campaign trail for stealing U.S.
jobs with unfair trade polices. In December, after winning office, he
upended protocol by taking a call from the president of self-ruled
Taiwan, which China regards as its own sacred territory.
A
few months on, after meeting Xi at his Florida residence earlier in
April, Trump appears to have done a complete volte-face, praising Xi for
trying hard to rein in nuclear-armed North Korea and rebuffing Taiwan's
president's suggestion of another call.
Chinese officials will no doubt be
pleased, said Jia Qingguo, a leading academic who has advised the
government on foreign policy.
"People
will say that the only thing we know for sure about Donald Trump's
administration is uncertainty and unpredictability," said Jia, dean of
the School of International Studies at the elite Peking University.
"But
judging from what he has been saying and doing, it's quite reassuring
as far as China is concerned. Certainly I think people have developed
more positive views about the Donald Trump administration here and we
have a lot of expectations that we can work together constructively."
For China's neighbors, it's a little more complicated.
On one level, a healthy relationship between the world's two biggest economies suits everyone.
"It's
hugely positive that there's been a reasonably constructive start to
the bilateral dialogue between those two countries," Tom Lembong,
Indonesia's investment chief and close aide to President Joko Widodo
told Reuters.
But long-time allies may also be wondering just how far Washington still has their back.
Shashank
Joshi, senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London,
said countries such as Japan and South Korea could lose influence if
Trump's focus of enlisting Xi's help over North Korea creates a "sort of
U.S.-China G2".
"There are competing instincts within Trump pushing him in opposite directions," said Joshi.
"His
nationalism pushes him towards competition with China, but his
deal-making instinct, his openness to personal influence, and his
affinity for strongmen pushes him towards Xi, especially if he can show
results on North Korea."
SOUTH CHINA SEA
Singapore-based
security expert Ian Storey said he believed Trump's remarks would be
closely scrutinized by Southeast Asian leaders looking for signs of an
emerging Asia strategy.
"Most
would welcome a calm, co-operative relationship between China and the
U.S., but they will be deeply concerned at anything that looks like
Trump will give Xi a free hand over the South China Sea dispute, or
elsewhere," said Storey, who is based at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak
Institute.
The
administration has so far sent out mixed rhetorical signals over the
hotly disputed South China Sea. China's extensive claims to the vital
global trade route are challenged by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines
and Vietnam, as well as Taiwan.
The
U.S. has increased naval deployments in the South China Sea in recent
years amid roiling tensions and extensive island-building by China but,
under Trump, its warships have yet to challenge
China with a so-called
freedom of navigation patrol close to disputed features.
Admiral
Harry Harris, the chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, told the U.S.
Congress this week that he expected to be carrying out such patrols
soon, and repeated earlier concerns at China's continued militarization
of the area.
"Given
Trump's newfound friendship with Xi Jinping, it might make it
significantly harder for the Pacific Command to get its plans approved
for the next freedom of navigation patrols," Storey said.
UNPREDICTABLE
In Japan, often at
odds with China over what Beijing views as Tokyo's failure to properly
atone for World War Two, a Japanese government source sought to downplay
any impact on the burgeoning Trump-Xi friendship on Japan-U.S. ties.
"Trump's
softened approach to Xi may seem to be some kind of shift in the
balance of power but security cooperation between Japan and the United
States is extremely stable and has been confirmed in the face of the
current crisis situation in North Korea," the source told Reuters.
The tricky issue of Taiwan has not gone away either, and is one of several that could upset the new-found rapprochement.
Democratic
Taiwan has many friends in Washington who will not want to allow
autocratic China to get its way with the island, and the United States
is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.
Wang
Dong, associate professor of international studies at Peking
University, said China would remain on alert for another change of
direction by Trump.
"There
are reasons for optimism, but we are still being realistic. There are
still issues out there, from Taiwan to the South China Sea," he said.
One
Beijing-based Western diplomat told Reuters that, while China might be
pleased to see Trump hang ally South Korea out to dry with his criticism
of their free trade deal and demand Seoul pay $1 billion to host a U.S.
anti-missile system China has strongly opposed, China should not have
any illusions.
"He's so
unpredictable who knows what he'll say next week or next month?" said
the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. "His mood turns on a
pin."
(Source: Reuters; Additional reporting by Michael Martina, and Linda Sieg in Toyko,
Kanupriya Kapoor and Karen Lema in Manila, Sanjeev Miglani in New Delhi,
and Greg Torode in Hong Kong; Editing by Alex Richardson)
No comments:
Post a Comment