Source: Bloomberg by Ari Levy, Brian Womack and Joseph Galante
Google Inc.’s feud with the Chinese government may be the smallest of its challenges as the search leader contends with slowing growth, regulatory scrutiny and a shift in ad spending.
While Mountain View, California-based Google has the biggest share of online search at home and in Western Europe, it has been leapfrogged by social network Facebook Inc. as the most popular U.S. Web site. Google’s ventures in mobile, video and display ads have failed to match the success of search, and regulators may thwart efforts to expand through acquisitions.
As sales gains diminish, some investors are concerned that Google has begun to resemble Microsoft Corp., which generates billions of dollars in cash from its mature flagship business yet has struggled to conquer new markets. Google’s sales increased 9 percent last year after almost doubling in 2005.
“They were the new kid on the block and everyone thought they were great,” said Daniel Morgan, a money manager at Synovus Financial in Atlanta, which oversees about $7.5 billion, including 27,720 Google shares, Bloomberg data shows. “That kind of euphoric, love-at-first-sight status has changed.”
Last week, after a two-month dispute with China over censorship issues, Google shut its mainland Chinese search engine and redirected users to its Hong Kong site. Google was second in the Chinese search market, behind Baidu Inc.
Google shares, which doubled last year, had dropped 8.6 percent in 2010 before today, the sixth-biggest decline among the 75 technology stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The stock, 24 percent below its peak of more than $740 in 2007, fell $2.89 to $563.82 at 9:34 a.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading.
Google spokeswoman Jane Penner declined to comment.
Facebook Rivalry
One of Google’s biggest challenges comes from Palo Alto, California-based Facebook. This month, Facebook surpassed Google as the most visited Web site in the U.S., accounting for more weekly visits than Google.com, according to research firm Hitwise.
Facebook’s gains at Google’s expense weren’t lost on Levi Strauss & Co. The closely held maker of blue jeans and Dockers pants is advertising on Facebook this year for the first time, while its budget for search, Google’s mainstay, is staying about the same as last year, said Megan O’Connor, director of digital marketing.
Earlier this month, the San Francisco-based company sponsored events at the South by Southwest music festival in Austin, Texas. Levi advertised across Facebook for two weeks leading up to the event, targeting 18- to 34-year-olds who identified themselves as music fans, O’Connor said.
“We are looking at social as a new place for us to spend,” O’Connor said.
Starbucks, JetBlue
The same goes for advertisers including Starbucks Corp. and JetBlue Airways Corp., which are eager to get their marketing messages in front of Facebook’s 400 million users and like Levi are spending more on social media while holding steady on search. “Facebook is not an experiment for us anymore,” said Chris Bruzzo, vice president of brand, content and online at Seattle-based Starbucks. “It is a key part of how we go to market.”
Ford Motor Co. also is boosting spending on social networks at a faster pace than search.
“We provide a platform for marketers to create an authentic, two-way connection with their customers that has not been possible at scale before,” Facebook spokesman Brandon McCormick said.
To catch up in social media, Google added a social- networking feature called Buzz to its Gmail e-mail, letting users share photos, comments and clips from its YouTube site. The site drew criticism over privacy, prompting Google to scale back some of Buzz’s features.
Dealmaking
Google, with almost $25 billion in cash and marketable securities, also bought Aardvark, a site that lets users pose questions and receive answers online. And its Orkut social network has gained wide followings in India and Brazil.
Even with rising competition, Google will benefit as advertisers shift spending to the Web, where consumers are spending more time, said Jeff Donlon, an analyst at Manning & Napier Advisors Inc.
“Google will keep making improvements to search and display, allowing advertisers to get a higher return on their investment,” said Donlon, whose Fairport, New York-based firm manages more than $25 billion and owns about 1 million Google shares.
Mobile, Display Ads
Google has also made headway in efforts to expand into mobile and display advertising, where rival Yahoo! Inc. took an early lead. In mobile, Google is taking on Apple Inc.’s iPhone with its Android operating system. Some 6.8 million Android- powered phones were sold in 2009, accounting for 3.9 percent of the global market, according to researcher Gartner Inc.
Most analysts remain bullish on Google. Of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, 32 have “buy” ratings, eight rate it a “hold,” and none recommends that investors sell the stock. By contrast, 15 analysts rate Yahoo a “buy,” 21 have it as a “hold,” and one has a “sell.”
To bolster mobile advertising, Google announced plans in November to buy AdMob Inc. for $750 million. The U.S. mobile-ad market may more than triple to as much as $3 billion by 2013, according to a Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. report last year.
Android Gains
“They need to show how they’re going to monetize things like Android, where they seem to be taking good mobile market share,” said Richard Parower, manager of the $533 million Seligman Global Technology Fund at J.W. Seligman & Co. in New York, which holds Google stock. “How can they turn that into operating profits?”
Google spent a combined $4.9 billion on YouTube and DoubleClick through 2008 to increase sales of ads in videos and help customers create and measure Web advertising campaigns. Those deals may generate $2 billion to $3 billion in sales next year, Citigroup Inc. analyst Mark Mahaney said.
As ambitious as Google’s expansion efforts may be, the high end of that range represents less than 10 percent of Mahaney’s forecast for total sales. Microsoft too has tried with mixed results to expand beyond its main market, business software, into such areas as video games, online search and mobile operating systems.
Parallels to Microsoft don’t end there. Google has been piling up cash faster than it can find ways to spend it. Its cash and marketable securities surged 54 percent to $24.5 billion at the end of 2009 from a year earlier and made up 60 percent of total assets, up from 50 percent. Meanwhile, research and development costs rose only 1.8 percent to $2.8 billion.
Hemmed In
That means Google is spending about 12 cents of every sales dollar on research and development, comparable with 15 cents for Microsoft. Jack Evans, a spokesman at Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft, declined to comment.
Microsoft’s sales surged during the 1990s, lifted by the growing adoption of personal computers and new versions of the Windows operating system. Revenue climbed 46 percent in fiscal 1996 as users embraced Windows 95. By 2002, the pace of growth had slipped to 12 percent.
At Google, sales growth has slowed in each of the past seven years, to 9 percent in 2009 from 409 percent in 2002.
Also like Microsoft, Google faces regulatory obstacles to efforts to break into faster-growing markets. The Federal Trade Commission is investigating whether the AdMob deal would squelch competition in the mobile ad market.
'Greater Scrutiny’
The U.S. Justice Department also has raised antitrust concerns over a proposed $125 million legal settlement between Google and a group of publishers and authors. The agreement, if approved by a judge, would create the world’s largest digital library. In Europe, Google is under scrutiny for possible privacy, antitrust and intellectual property violations.
“Google has enjoyed an extended period of unfettered growth,” said Jonathan Zuck, president of the Association for Competitive Technology, a Washington trade group that represents technology companies. “Between Washington and Brussels, it’s clear that they’re now in a time where their explosive growth will be under greater scrutiny.”